Author: Willis Bennett

Nothing Changes

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Nothing has changed from my Daily and Weekly comments yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Large Premium In Nov Over Oct

Weekly Continuous

Prompt Oct remained in the same range October gas opened a little lower ($2.624 v $2.644) and closed a little lower ($2.637, minus $.007). In between there were a couple of tests of support (Monday’s low was $2.600, the value of the trend line rising from the April/May/June lows was $2.598 and another failed test of resistance. October traded an “outside” day reversal after the first test of the rising trend line with increased volume then followed through to the upside, trading a new high for its tenure as prompt ($2.872 v $2.865 on 08/31). The now soon to expire prompt managed to post a new high daily close then that was all she wrote as October gave up the two day gain falling to a new low for the week $2.595 before Friday’s recovery to close at $2.637, a little more than a penny below the continuation 50 – day SMA.

November gave up more (-$.053) as did December (- $.048) and the winter ’23 – ’24 strip (- $.041…a new low close). November has defined its own trading range since late March…+/-$2.825 – $3.300 but this week’s lowest close in 2+ years suggests that the lower boundary of that range nearly corresponds to the upper boundary of the continuation range, is likely to be in for a severe test. Have discussed the possibility/likelihood of November being taken into the extended continuation range and continues to warrant a serious mention. A close below $2.825 increases that likelihood to a probability. November is still awarded $.242/dt premium over October but since its peak on 08/15 that premium has been reduced by half ($.239 v $.502).

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October Lives For Three Days

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Not much to say about the last three days of the Oct prompt contract life outside of the range that contracts have maintained all summer. Weakness has been the trend of the expiration’s this year so would think there should be some this month as well. Nov has a serious premium discussed in the Weekly section and it is likely that Nov will be brought into the recent range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Guesses

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Any guesses as to what I will be doing as the market challenges to low side of the summer trading range?

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Market Winding Tighter In Range

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Seems to me that this is starting to feel like a market that is winding its way to an issue. When I was a kid (few days ago) we used to have balsa woods plane that you would wind the rubber band up so tight and throw it in the air- releasing the rubber band to power the plane. This market is behaving the same way as the range gets tighter and tighter within the larger range — something is going to give. Whether the plane takes off or crashes into the lawn and the band breaks is unknown. Stick with the range trade but start to lighten up on selling premium.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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What To Make

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What are we to make of that move on little fundamental support out side of the energy complex of commodities. Doubt this will hold over night as the light trade of the after market will find sellers seeking the $2.80’s. It does nothing to the directional bias (range trade between $3.00-$2.50) that has held for the summer.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Quiet Trade For Birthday

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Enjoyed the Birthday celebration and was not startled to see that the market did not do anything in my absence. Still in the summer range with no serious directional bias. I have no idea how many times I have said those words over the last 3 months — but consolidation processes behave like this. Hold on– it will break one way or another.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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No Serious Action on the Storage

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Nothing to add from the storage data except confirmation that the market is real comfortable trading between $2.80 and $2.50. Time will tell– but in the mean time I will be late on the Weekly report (Tuesday) and there will be no Daily for next Monday as I am celebrating the anniversary of my birth. Yee Haw.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Ceiling Remains

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Price run fell short of serious resistance — so lets call it a failed attempt — again. Storage is upon us lets see what happens– still in the summer range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Gap Closed

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As expected, the gap left from last Tuesday was closed yesterday and now the market is starting to bounce up to the resistance area that has repelled rallies during the summer. This will be key for the remainder of the October prompt– if the resistance breaks then tests of $3.00 are imminent — if it remains firm then a great selling zone.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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