Author: Willis Bennett

Perhaps the Time Is Coming

Weekly Continuous with RSI

The support held that I mentioned last week. After the quick trade deep into the zone of historical support expiring March rallied about $.20/dt before fading to go off the board at $1.615, $.875 lower than February settlement and the lowest monthly settlement since July ’20 at $1.495 after trading the June ’20 multi – year low. From there prices reversed higher to record the largest one day gain of its tenure as prompt.

Rather than immediately forfeiting its premium over expired March ($.193…which was almost a dime more than at last Friday’s close and $.083 more than a year ago) the new prompt traded stubbornly above its “expiration” gap and rallied to test resistance expected to be presented by its highs of the last two weeks ($1.877 –$1.890, ). From its close a week ago April traded $.219 higher, to $1.918 and closed above the continuation 20 – day SMA for the first time since January 17th and found support at that moving average through the end of the week, closing $.136/dt higher.

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Going to Check Resistance

Daily Continuous with RSI

Went into some of the longer term analysis and expectations in the Weekly section. On the Daily just checking out the resistance levels to make sure they hold. Should they break — expect a short covering rally to send prices $.15 higher. Should they hold the range remains in place and a test of support is likely coming in a few days.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Momentary Volatility

Daily Continuous

found a brief moment of price movement after the release, likely short covering on the number being more bullish than expected, but then prices just spent the remainder of the day retracing lower. Again, no major commitment in either bias. Snooze along.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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The Beat Goes On

Daily Continuous

Missed the email yesterday, but nothing has changed with the roll over to April as prompt. Perhaps the storage report will provide some volatility, but I am not sure. Everyone knows that we are well supplied with gas coming out of the winter– it is basically the reason we are trading under $2.00. I am still working the call spreads and selling other premium to just keep interested in a very boring market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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April Takes Over

Daily Continuous

Did not get this out in the mail today, my apologies, but to tell the truth, wasn’t even going to post today due to the lack of action. Market seems to maintain range bound action- so lets see if it challenges the resistance area before the storage data comes out on Thursday.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Consolidation? Not Sure

Daily Continuation

Have no clue if this is a consolidation process or just range trading after testing the higher side of the range. Needless to say, this may just be the market scrambling during the expiration process. My attitude has always been about staying away from the expiration trade. Continue with that thought.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Are Cracks Developing in Bear Cave

Daily Continuous

Not saying that the bear market is coming to a new definition but some of the “divergences” may be starting to develop. A lower low last week , but not confirmed with a lower RSI (lacking momentum), declining open interest (see Weekly) as prices rose, prices manage to close just at (or slightly above) the the 2 standard deviation band. This may be a market that will need time to correct from its condition (see Weekly) but it will and there is likely higher prices and more short covering headed into the game.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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No Change Yet

Weekly Continuous

Though nothing was defined as changing the lower low on continuous prices and lower RSI (momentum indicator) confirmed that the bias is still bearish. In the Daily Continuous with RSI you will notice a lower low in price but not confirmed in the RSI- the first steps in creating a potential bottom. Lets review the last week:

After the long weekend March gas gapped lower -down into the support zone between $1.500 and $1.600, and to $1.522. From there prices reversed higher to record the largest one day gain of its tenure as prompt. A round of pre expiration short covering propelled extremely oversold March (mentioned previously) to back to back daily gains. From there the short lived rally predictably failed just above the a continuation trend line declining from the January highs. The now soon to expire prompt gave up all of the modest gain to end the week $.006 lower. March’s sixth straight weekly decline left prompt gas still within the zone of support that limited declines in ’96, ‘97, ’98, ‘ 99, ’01, ’15, ’16 and ’20.

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Storage Report Brings Consolidation

Daily Continuous

With the recent bearish trade, my expectations that the new headlines regarding production cuts would become history and declines would continue again. To my surprise, declines were held to the previous day’s lows. Time will tell if the operators comments will drive prices longer term. Until then, continue to play the call spreads, mentioned earlier in the week, using the further summer months.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Late Strength Held

Daily Continuous

The late day rally yesterday was confirmed as prices remained strong throughout the day. The rally was based upon news that some operators were lowering production volumes and limited new projects. Not exactly sure what the sellers (hedge funds) were thinking with production being strong while prices were at $1.50 or below at the well head. The only tool the operators have is the amount they produce and drill for. The first salvo has now been fired — and today (storage report) will provide further insight as to bias near term.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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