Author: Willis Bennett

Storage Report Brings Implications

Daily Continuous

Not sure what the release will show but taking into the fact that it reflects two weeks of activity — the potential for volatility is high. The market, though, continues to reflect a consolidation phase type of behavior. If the previous months are any indication the range developing will have $3.00 as the low end and the highs of $3.64 finding sellers. Plan accordingly.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Consolidation of Recent Gains and Declines

Daily Continuous

Last week’s declines met with early gains this week — its not surprising that the market is going to consolidate and figure out its next directional bias (if only for a day or two). Developing a nice trading range that could provide $.25-$40 volatility in both directions.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Expected Run Now What

Daily Continuous

That didn’t take long for prices to rally, as discussed yesterday, and the run took prices up to low resistance zones. We shall see how far this rally goes and yes, the forecasts will have a lot to do with the run extension. I will stick with the technical data points and will trade accordingly with an eye to some forecasts defining sudden moves.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Doesn’t Get More Bearish

Weekly Continuous

Lets look at the technical side of trade last week– Lower low testing major support (holds for now) on increasing volume and increasing open interest. That sounds like a market that wants to decline further. The big area is the support zone where trade left last week at $3.00 should it hold then prices may rebound to test breakdown areas at $3.16, $3.25, and $3.32. Further declines will send prices back to the range trade of the late summer ($2.80-$2.64).

Last week’s action was off of bearish weather reports for November but I am not convinced they can get any more bearish and it is likely that weather will change. The bearish start to Q4 prices reminds my of a couple of years ago — but I have to look them up to comment. In the meantime — wanted to have you look at something I wrote to a client last week..

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Major Support Holds– For Now

Daily Continuous

Prices closed below the trend line off of the Sept / Oct lows and are now challenging the major support zone around $3.00. Guess December is going to be warm and the Thanksgiving parade will be in shorts. No clue but this decline will end and the late comers will be gutted unless Dec is warm and comfy.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Declines Continue to Define Low Range

Daily Continuous

The declines continued and now seem to want to test the $3.00 zone and then perhaps lower. No storage report to bring volatility to prices so would continue to buy support and keep the stops tight (around $3.00).

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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A Dip Into Strong Support

Daily Continuous

A move early in the day took prices down below the expiration of Nov to $3.099. That low did not get tested again during the day. Price action seems to be a result of winter not arriving and folks are loading up the shorts with expectations of additional declines. Have seen this type of action on weather forecasts early in the season and have watched the covering when forecasts change.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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New Gap Above

Daily Continuous

The decline yesterday was significant and some what expected as prices had raced off of the new prompt strength. Challenging support now the action has left a new gap on the Daily chart above which will likely act as a magnet for price action in the coming days. Currently prices are about in the middle of the range of action on the continuous chart between $2.98–$3.64. Time to sit back and observe — no need to trade every day.

Major Support: $3.25, $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Dec Prompt Will Develop Its Range

Daily Continuous

In the title there is the assumption that the Dec contract has not developed its range. The low end of the range has yet to be developed and then tested. Last week did not achieve that objective. Perhaps, this week will give us further insights. Check the Weekly for the broader expectations.

Major Support: $3.25, $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Prices Retain Most of the Premium

Weekly Continuous

Despite new prompt December’s $.319 premium over expired November at last week’s close there was no expiration gap to begin December’s tenure (as there was on 09/28. Rather than building on that premium as November did, the new prompt immediately began to narrow the difference. December traded lower $.165) but not nearly enough to reach the target zone ($3.16 – $3.25). The price decline then rallied to a higher continuation high confirmed a new short – intermediate trend line.

On a continuation basis prompt gas traded a higher weekly high, began to challenge some old support that was decisively violated during the collapse from the ’22 highs (the December ’21 low and the low of calendar ’22, $3.543 – $3.638, see chart above), and closed at the highest weekly settlement since the first week of ’23. As bullish as that seems, December failed for the third time in four weeks at its 40 – week SMA, ended the week only $.032/dt higher and clearly remains in a range.

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