Author: Willis Bennett

2024 Expiration Behavior Returns

Daily Continuation

Discussed the history of expiration behavior in 2024 with last month being the only exception to the weakness trend for expiration’s during the year and yesterday provided a return to the tendency. The question will be how does it behave today and what is the effect on the spread to the December contract.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $2.727-$2.784, $3.00, $3.16

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What Does this Expiration Bring Us

Daily Continuation

Mentioned in the Weekly section that each expiring contract month from February through September ’24 was “amply” offered as it went off the board. That changed last month. October traded the high of its tenure as prompt on the day it went to settlement at $2.585. Not sure what will happen with the Nov expiration but would not expect major volatility. My guess would be it is neither well bid or offered into expiration, as the market is seeking its near term commitment.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $2.727-$2.784, $3.00, $3.16

Important Expiration This Week

Weekly Continuation

The soon to expire prompt plunged to test and reverse from the 40 – week SMA. The reversal from the long – term trend defining moving average support left November $.068 lower for the two weeks but back above its August and September lows, leaving the charts with the appearance of a failed break-down.

The December contract, still commands $.532 premium over November, traded an outside week reversal. Closing higher each day this week December rallied to test its 50 – day SMA, increased its premium over the expiring prompt and ended above the high traded a week ago with expected increasing volume (due to the roll). That weekly reversal and increased premium are technical positives that are likely to play an important role for calendar November and the remainder of ’24.

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What Was That

Daily Continuous

Did not see that break out above happening– in fact due to the move on Wednesday, my speculation was some folks were trying to front run a bearish report. Well, we got the bearish report but prices didn’t decline — rather continued the ascent. With the expiration coming nest week (we know the 2024 record of declines into expiration), we have to be very cautious of this rally– it may take us to the $2.60’s — but it may provide a trap door for declines back to the $2.30’s. I will be following the differed contracts (Dec and Jan) for better insight of the near term price movement.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $2.727-$2.784, $3.00, $3.16

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Brief Break Above

Daily Continuous

Did not see a break above the recent range coming but that was what happened yesterday. Not sure of the reason or focus for the gains except for the markets needing to challenge the highs (and potentially lows) of recent range trading. Perhaps, it was in advance of a storage release surprise coming tomorrow and known by some.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $3.00, $3.16

Small Bounce Off Support

Daily Continuation

When markets hit their respective extreme zones on the Daily RSI– it is wise to expect some sort of a bounce. What occurred yesterday was just that sort of event. Longer term — the market may rebound a slight further but make no mistake there will be additional tests of support.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $3.00, $3.16

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Declines Show Oversold Near Term

Daily Continuous

The declines during last week left the market over sold on the Daily RSI reaching the extreme zone. While the Weekly RSI is not confirming yet, creating a slight divergence in the indicators. Prices are likely to continue to test the lows side of the range (creating the trade-able low). Would continue to trade the range from a selling premium standpoint.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $3.00, $3.16

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Break Down and Extension

Weekly Continuation

Since October 4th December has traded to $3.406, the upper boundary of a trading range constructed on that chart since early July (the August high of December gas was $3.395), and down to $2.975-$3.000 is the lower boundary of its several months range (December set two lows during September, the first on 09/03 at $2.975, the second on 09/19 at $2.976, four times between 09/03 and 09/19 reversed higher from that support. Last week the sponsorship that had previously existed just on either side of $3.000. When that support failed last week, December traded to new contract lows back into the recent range trade.

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Running Out of Stimulus

Daily Continuous

The storage release could not take prices out of the developing range trade– Not sure what will provide a stimulation for prices to expand to either the upside or downside — we are stuck in the range.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $3.00, $3.16

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Consolidation Continues

Daily Continuous

Not much more to add from yesterday–that said if the market is going to be range bound for the near future then the concept of selling premium at the lows or the rallies come into focus.

Major Support:, $2.35, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $2.63, $3.00, $3.16