Author: Willis Bennett

Additional Bites Into Gap

Daily Continuous

The rally continued after the storage release with prices testing near term support only to rally and bite into the gap from January. Playing with length seems to be profitable – but care and respect should be given to the gap closing– should it occur. The bias continues to confirm the change but time will tell and the weekly close should provide my more information.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.168-$2.411 (gap), $2.26

Important Storage Release

Daily Continuous

This week’s release of data is likely one of the last reports that will not have the effects of heat in TX, OK and the southern regions as temps head higher into the late spring and summer months. The timing, from a technical perspective, is very good as the market seems to be consolidating the gains from the end of April and should test the area from $2.12-$2.00, confirming the base zone.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.168-$2.411 (gap), $2.26

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May Be Building a Near Term Base

Daily Continuous

Tight range yesterday– setting up for potentially more consolidation trade which will gather the break out potential. A consolidation process that breaks down will need to deal with the support area between $2.00-$1.90 that has already had several tests and failures.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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A Little More of the Gap Close

Daily Continuation

It looks like a small bite at a time as the market chews into the gap from last January. regardless of the bites the price action is different with the bias more positive, Build positions on retrace action but keep in mind, the overall trend remains bearish – though the current trade is more bullish.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Technically — A Bias Conversion

Daily Continuous

Discuss the effects of last week’s trade in the Weekly section, but suffice to say, that was a bullish trend to trade during the week. Not sure we are going to close the gap from this Jan but they may try to chew into that gap.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Prices Remain Firm

Weekly Continuous

June traded through and closed above the April high ($2.092) making it the 15th time in 17 years that prompt gas has traded through the calendar April high during May. June also closed above declining trend line resistance, which will likely now serve as support as well as the March high and above the continuation 20 – week SMA for the first time since first two Fridays of 2024.

June’s rally was impressive, but it stopped short of narrowing the “expiration” gap left following February expiration and well short of well – defined conventional resistance presented by the December low closing above that gap would approximately equal the average of historical rallies from Q1 lows to Q2 highs. Volume was a little higher this week (a technically positive point, but just equaled the 20 – week average). Open interest was higher as prompt gas rallied, also a technical positive.

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Prices Remain Within June Range

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly earlier this week that the June contract would define its own range which it is and the current range (as in Weekly) remains $1.90-$2.15. As discussed this week will likely define the near term direction for bias.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $2.08, $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Didn’t Like the Altitude

Daily Continuous

Well, prices close above $2 but then spent yesterday retracing back under that key area. Problem for the bears is that prices didn’t collapse and rather found support above last week’s low for the June contract. Perhaps, that could be interpreted as a bullish divergence but would not take that to the bank. As mentioned yesterday — perhaps (as a trader), you need to take a time out and let the market define its intentions.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $2.08, $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Rare Close Over $2

Daily Continuous

A close above initial resistance is an interesting signal — the question will by how long does it hold the gains. Will this signal a bias change — this week will provide answers.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Expect the Same Until It Doesn’t

Weekly Continuation

Friday’s contract expiration was remarkably reminiscent of the last days of the March and April contracts. May traded a new low for its tenure as prompt just as the two immediate predecessors, at $1.482, before settling at $1.614 (granted the low was traded in the early morning with little or no volume).

With May off the board at $1.614 the June (soon to be prompt) closed on Friday at $1.923, $.309 premium…nearly a dime (actually $.099) more that May was awarded over April and $.105 more than April over March. Deferred contracts have constructed their own trading ranges (discussed recently), each of which have ultimately been violated to the downside as the expiration of those contracts approached. April’s range was +/- $1.70 to $2.00 before it broke down to settlement day low of $1.481. The calendar March low was $.03/dt lower than the February low. May’s range during April’s turn as prompt was nearly the same as April’s had been except the upper limit was a little lower. Prompt May also broke down to a settlement day low ($1.482, holding .001 above the March low before recovering). Unless new prompt June falls $.442 during the last two trading days of April $1.482 likely, will be the April low, the first higher monthly low since October. Just to continue the analogy, a year ago the April low was $1.946, $.002 higher than the calendar March ’23 low. May ’23 traded that low on 04/14 rather than coincident with expiration and then settled higher at $2.117 (suggesting a departure from the established pattern).

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