Author: Willis Bennett

A Ying and A Yang To The Market

Weekly Continuous

Perhaps it is why it is been in a range of late– April gas traded a little less then $.25/dt range this week (the average range of the last fifteen weeks is .41/dt/wk). After first testing very clearly defined resistance just north of $2 (the zone of resistance between those four monthly lows from around this time last year and the historically important January ’24 low (+/- $1.965 –$2.037), the prompt reversed course after trading to $2.009 and fell to slip the “expiration” gap left on February 27th narrowing it to $1.720 – $1.755. Having tested resistance and then support April ended the week quietly. Friday’s range was only .082, the close .03 lower than a week earlier.

The previous week had a reversal off of the expiration low but the flaw in the almost always significant weekly reversal was a lack of volume. Average daily volume fell more than 80,000 contracts during the reversal week. This week following a test of resistance…which was almost guaranteed by the upside reversal, April fell with increasing volume. Volume on Thursday, when more than 600,000 contracts changed hands with the prompt closing $.111 lower, was the highest since 02/22. This week’s trade with a close lower than the open after trading a higher high is also a reversal…and given the significant increase in volume largely neutralizes the wider range reversal traded the prior week. The close in the lower quadrant of the range traded with increasing volume and open interest is a strong suggestion that April is destined to trade lower, the question is now or later in the month.

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Wish It Could Be More Dramatic

Daily Continuous

This gets very frustrating for the author as this market does not seem inclined to move any where very fast. As previously suggested — perhaps a time to just make income from selling premium — especially from the call side as price have hit a temporary wall at $2.00.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Slight Break Down on the Report

Daily Continuous

A little action on the report itself — but in reality it was a slow and methodical meltdown well off of the report release. Price reaction has been trading on fundamental weather forecasts — so to me it will be interesting to watch the selling in the face of 1Bcf/d decline in production and all of the announced declines from the operators.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Going To Need an Alarm — Wake Me Up

Daily Continuous

A week later and not much has changed going into the storage report. Last week brought little volatility — what will this week bring.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Taking Its Time

Daily Continuous

Well the break above $2.00 is clearly on the “sloth” approach. Though prices did manage to eclipse $2.00 for a moment — there was not enough to force any sort of covering — just additional selling into the close. Not much to add technical — just a struggle at resistance.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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A Little Closer

Daily Continuous

It climbed closer to the key resistance at $2.00 but could not finish it at the end. Not sure if the April contract will but one would have to believe that prices are going to run above $2.00 during the Q2 high. Is it now or later — no clue.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Perhaps the Time Is Coming

Weekly Continuous with RSI

The support held that I mentioned last week. After the quick trade deep into the zone of historical support expiring March rallied about $.20/dt before fading to go off the board at $1.615, $.875 lower than February settlement and the lowest monthly settlement since July ’20 at $1.495 after trading the June ’20 multi – year low. From there prices reversed higher to record the largest one day gain of its tenure as prompt.

Rather than immediately forfeiting its premium over expired March ($.193…which was almost a dime more than at last Friday’s close and $.083 more than a year ago) the new prompt traded stubbornly above its “expiration” gap and rallied to test resistance expected to be presented by its highs of the last two weeks ($1.877 –$1.890, ). From its close a week ago April traded $.219 higher, to $1.918 and closed above the continuation 20 – day SMA for the first time since January 17th and found support at that moving average through the end of the week, closing $.136/dt higher.

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Going to Check Resistance

Daily Continuous with RSI

Went into some of the longer term analysis and expectations in the Weekly section. On the Daily just checking out the resistance levels to make sure they hold. Should they break — expect a short covering rally to send prices $.15 higher. Should they hold the range remains in place and a test of support is likely coming in a few days.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Momentary Volatility

Daily Continuous

found a brief moment of price movement after the release, likely short covering on the number being more bullish than expected, but then prices just spent the remainder of the day retracing lower. Again, no major commitment in either bias. Snooze along.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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The Beat Goes On

Daily Continuous

Missed the email yesterday, but nothing has changed with the roll over to April as prompt. Perhaps the storage report will provide some volatility, but I am not sure. Everyone knows that we are well supplied with gas coming out of the winter– it is basically the reason we are trading under $2.00. I am still working the call spreads and selling other premium to just keep interested in a very boring market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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