Author: Willis Bennett

Storage Report on Que

Daily Continuous

Perhaps a brief response to the bearish date flooding the market, a small bounce took prices higher through the day. For bulls be cautious, for bears wait and and sell against any rally .

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Declines Stall

Daily Continuous

I guess the storage report today won’t be as bearish as last week’s as the market ran low on sellers yesterday. touching the lows from Tuesday — there was no momentum to push prices lower. I suspect that there will be additional downside momentum today if the report is more bearish that current expectations– unlike last week where the seller’s came in before and there were none left when the report was released (at expectations).

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Low End Range Tested/Broken

The new low for 2025 is now in the process of being completed as prices continued the declines and broke below previous trade lows. Can’t say if this softness is in anticipation of the storage data or just normal seasonal weakness around the Labor Day holiday– either way it is soft out there and few buyers currently. If you are an end-user (consumer of natural gas) you may want to look at the winter strip for gas as a hedge (perhaps Dec and Jan at least).

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Heading Into Seasonal Weakness

Daily Continuous

Prices continue to challenge the lows but breakdowns receive support which isn’t allowing a dramatic breakdown to occur. Heading into a period of seasonal weakness, so I would not expect a variance to the current trade patterns.

Major Support: $2.97, $2.916-$2.895, $2.858, $2.808, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Not Sure if Q3 Low Is In

Weekly Continuous

September plunged through the conventional support zone and closed below both on Tuesday with a significant increase in volume, oddly though the prompt recovered. The extension of the decline to close at $2.808, the lowest daily close since November 14th, below definable support with the highest volume since 07/23 had the earmarks of a decline that would be extended lower– Huh – volume, although still higher than average began to dry up, and the ranges traded during the two days following the new low close were less than a dime. The restricted ranges and the closes near the highs were clear suggestions that the enthusiasm of Tuesday’s sellers had, substantially diminished.

There is still a lot of negative seasonality ahead, including the period bracketing Labor Day that will be the primary focus of the next Week’s, but a weekly reversal (the close for the week was higher than the open after trading a lower low) with increased volume, to hold the trend line feels like a rejection of lower prices. The determining factor will be whether the trend line declining from the June and July highs (currently $2.980) continues to guide prompt gas lower or a will it be violated and trigger a short covering rally to test some of the plentiful resistance between $3.20 and $3.50.

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Must Be a Negative Storage Release

Daily Continuous

Prices tanked on Tuesday and showed no signs of rebounding yesterday. My only guess is that the storage release today must be very bearish with a significant injection but that is fundamental information, I don’t track such things. Perhaps that everyone one is suspecting bearish data, when they get the data, there are no more sellers. We shall see.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Market Not Expanding Declines from Death Cross

Daily Continuous

Weekly Continuous

Wanted to show on both the Weekly and Daily charts the Death Cross formation (when the short term moving averages break below the long term averages) and responding to a question from one of the readers. While a bearish formation indicating the potential trend change, I chose not to highlight as the market seemed to be focused more on the ranges each contract had developed. Note on the Daily Chart a “cross” occurred last year and after a few days. Perhaps this year is different but I would not add significant short positions until the duration of impact is better defined.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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What’s Coming

Daily Continuous

Declines continue but would hesitate to suggest adding to shorts until the range provided, break down. Look to the Weekly section for expectations for the declines and weekly bias.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Market Against Medium Term Support

Daily Continuation

Gap open on Sunday night– looks like some folks want to challenge support trend lines and a series of recent lows. Be fun to watch the movement over the next week or so to see if the declines gain on momentum or just daily losses in little increments with little enthusiasm.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Likely To Be Important Week for Bias

Weekly Continuous

Rather than my expected recovery (prompt gas typically rallies from a late July/early August low) September continued to find substantial selling between $3.100 and $3.150 (the highs of the last seven trading days have been within that zone and with the exception of a downside reversal day on 7/30 ($3.186) since 07/24. Fading from that band of resistance September traded through the calendar July low ( not particularly unusual, it has now done so in 14 of the last 20 years), but then posted the lowest daily closing price since last November ($2.823, 11/15).

The recovery from Monday’s low of $2.895 (the lowest low since prompt May was about to go to settlement) left the first suggestion of a momentum divergence that we’ve seen during the decline from the June Q2 high. A reversal from the high of that recovery (08/07, $3.148) suggests that September has not yet developed the sponsorship for the expected seasonal “correction”.

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