Author: Willis Bennett

November Maintains $.20 Premium

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Today is expiration and the market has not shown a weakness yet, but the verdict is not yet defined. I continue to reflect on what was identified from the trends of ’24 and will expect some weakness.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Some Firming

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Price action declined slightly but did not represent the weakness of the previous ’24 contracts– The jury is still out per my Daily yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.44-$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Next Three Days Are Key

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Mentioned in the Weekly section: … eight contract months that have gone to settlement so far in ’24 three have traded pre expiration highs on or after the 22nd. May fell hard during its last three days, August for five straight days the others had variations of weakness and timing, Once it became evident that expiring contracts were being “amply offered”…five of the eight have traded contract lows on the day they went to settlement. Have mentioned it before that, a change in that pattern would indicate a change in the character of the gas market. This week we will find out whether that change has occurred.

How do you say the rubber will be meeting the road this week. Be interesting to watch after the gains of yesterday.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

High Weekly Close — Bullish

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The market closed at its high last week and the highest since last June. Discussed the impacts of the changes last week in the Weekly section, all that can be said here is the implication of the last 8 expiration’s and the weakness that these have provided. Would expect more of the same until it doesn’t happen.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Evidence of A Bias Change Continues

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For the third consecutive week steadily lower offers for the prompt gas ended with a reversal to the upside creating a higher low each time. Until late last week resistance presented by the upper boundary of a trading range that included the late July and calendar August highs had limited the reversal rallies. On 09/12 a high volume extension left October above that resistance but there was little follow through after the weekly closing violation and the prompt faded to test the continuation 50 – day SMA. The reversal from a successful test of the moving average support left the soon to expire prompt above the almost always important 20 – week SMA for the first time since the close of week ending 07/12, at the highest daily close since July 2nd, the highest weekly close since 06/28.

The technical case has been made that the successful test of the August expiration low coincident with September expiration (both $1.856 for a rare perfect double bottom), was likely the confirmation of a traditional Q3 low. Even so, the declines for the last eight expiring contract months gives me pause for thought. While I am still not convinced that October will hold onto its gains, two weekly closes over increasingly well – defined support…between the continuation 50 – day (currently +/-$2.23) and the late July – August – early September highs (between $2.270 and $2.301), along with the buying that continued through Friday’s close, which was essentially on the high.

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Struggles

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Market is having struggles breaking out and holding the gains, but with the season’s starting to change and the ending inventories of storage becoming known, I would expect the price to break through to the upside eventually.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Breaking Resistance Takes Commitment

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It seems that there just is not the commitment to send prices above the resistance yet. On the other side of trade, the lack of pounding prices lower is also a significant missing ingredient. Here we sit in a range trade game.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Daily Close At the Highs

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Spending a lot of time and contracts at the resistance area. Looks to this trader that it may break into the $2.40’s which may force some short covering action. On the other side prices may retreat back into the high teens to test support.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Day By Day Verdict For Futures

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Last week showed some resilience as a higher high and higher lows printed. Go into some of the technical analysis in the Weekly area but suffice to say higher highs and higher lows are supportive to a positive trend movement. The next week or so will provide more information to digest. This can be indicative of a trend bias change –stay tuned.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Higher Highs and Higher Lows

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Twice last week prompt gas traded reversals to the upside when it appeared that post – Labor Day seasonal pressure was beginning to weigh on October, both times from a higher low ($2.075 on 9/3 and $2.117 on 9/5, prompting a couple of thoughts: 1) that seasonal pressure had been exhausted as expiring September fell to test and hold the calendar July low, and/or 2) that weakness was being aggressively bought. On Tuesday, after retreating from last Friday’s test of the August high, October reversed again, trading another “outside” day reversal from another higher low ($2.125 on 09/10). With volume increasing October traded through the August high and closed above it. After extending the rally to $2.407, the highest trade in more than two months, October reversed lower with the lowest volume of the week but still managed to close above the August high.

A weekly close above the August high, the upper boundary of the trading range constructed since mid – July (resistance that limited rally attempts since then), becomes technical support, and goes a long way toward confirming that the twin calendar month lows traded at $1.856, was the traditional Q3 low.

While the gain for prompt gas appears to have resolved the continuation range to the upside, October was the only contract to post a positive close for the week. November, which failed almost exactly at its declining 50 – day SMA, finished just south of unchanged (-$.008) and the remaining months of the winter strip lost an average of $.074. The failure of deferred contracts to confirm strength in the nearby is possibly more characteristic of short covering (note that total open interest declined 21,500+ contracts). We will see if the rise in prompt and the decline in deferred contracts is indicative of unwinding previous positions.

The close above continuation resistance is a technical positive, but October’s failure to close above the almost always important 20 – week SMA (currently $2.353 and slowly rising) and the reversal from an approach to the upper boundary of a very well defined range on its own chart suggest that the burden of proof remains with the bulls. It is not suggested that end users chase the rally.

Major Support:, $2.112, $2.026-2.00, $1.991, $1.93 ,$1.642, $1.605
Minor Support : $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.25-$2.310, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16