Did not see a $.20 rally in both the prompt and June contract on expiration. What does it mean? — still in the range that held through the end of April– so I would expect the range to remain intact. Then again I had no expectations of yesterday’s move. Was it short covering or new positions in — will evaluate that with the volume and open interest data today.
Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
By now you should know my attitudes about trading on expiration day — I don’t. One thing I will be looking for is how the Jun contract trades relative to expiration. I am expecting weakness in the Jun contract early in it’s life, and to come back into the May expiration range.
Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
After declining for the fourth consecutive week, the gas market is suddenly at least short – term oversold…both the daily RSI and MACD finished the week in their historical EXTREME zones and the weekly RSI is not far away. In addition, prompt gas which just seven weeks ago was extended nearly three standard deviations above its 20 – weeks SMA closed on Friday two standard deviations BELOW that important moving average. The last time prompt gas was there was during February ’24 during the construction of a multi – year low, from which prompt gas more than tripled.
This is hardly the first time that veterans have seen gas prices fall precipitously from a blow off high…2014 and 2018 are two of the more recent examples. Many times, the comments that “this time is different”, has been referred to here and in the Daily, but this time it does feel a little different to me. If for no other reason, prompt gas remains above clearly defined rising trend lines on the weekly and monthly charts. Those are the same two trend lines suggested here in late January/early February would be tested as gas traded down to a traditional late Q1/early Q2 low. While that did not happen, they are still there to be tested…and until they are decisively violated the uptrend from the above referenced multi – year low is still intact.
The price decline took prices down to levels not seen since last December before finding some support. If you are a long time subscriber, you are well aware that I don’t participate in the expiration trade and very rarely work the upcoming prompt (in this case it is the June contract). I will be watching the spread between expiring May and upcoming June prompt over the next two days. Will update over the weekend and define thoughts in the Weekly section on Monday.
Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
June is trading a slight $.13 premium to the expiring May contract (Monday) and I will not be chasing it. Depending on how the prompt trades in the last three days of life, any position in June will be beyond my risk tolerance.
Major Support: $2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
The trade low from yesterday was below the low from earlier in the year as prices fell below $2.99 for a few trades. The question now is how low with the bears take the market. Similar to 2020, the Q1 low was briefly broken in April before prices rebounded. Not convinced the market signals are the same a 2020 as we were going through an over supplied bias then. Six consecutive down trading days is starting to leave some over sold indicators. Selling should carry tight stops.
Major Support: $3.336, $3.16-$3.11-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
Spoke about the market last week and the small extension to the declines in the Weekly section. Will be keeping the Daily short as just got back from a holiday dinner. Key is the challenge developing to close the gap in the early Sunday night trade and discussed the outcome of early move on Sunday night during the trade on Monday. Still sitting on the sidelines for a confirming technical move to define bias near term. This slow decline in prices still has not countered the bullish bias long term and seems to be a move to test support.
Major Support: $3.336, $3.16-$3.11-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
Due to an Easter celebrations — the Weekly and Daily sections of the website will be short in length. Last week provided little resolve to the previous week’s dilemma regarding bias but it was interesting to watch a lower low each of the trade days (technically a negative bias) but the open interest continued to decline each day (non-supportive of a bearish bias). Discussed here several times that volume is the energy that drives price trends and having declining volume levels last week sends a warning flag. There was not break down in prices but rather what I would characterize as a slow melt. At the end on Thursday (Friday – market was closed) there had been little resolution as to the bias for this upcoming week. The market did seem to hint at testing the $3.168-$3.11 gap in the Daily Continuous, but even if it opens down in the gap on Sunday night — the trend has been over the last few weeks, that what ever direction is established in Sunday night trade — the Monday full trading day reverses. Caution is advised.
Major Support: $3.336, $3.16-$3.11-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
The small range for prices (since the extraordinary range expansion last week) gives limited ability to drive returns other than the options market. Take what the market gives you– yesterday, did not even test the mid-term support area of $3.16 — be patient.
Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648, Minor Support : Major Resistance: $3.60, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
