Author: Willis Bennett

Defining Low End of August Range

Daily Continuation

Declines tested support before finding a bid. These range tests may continue this week and from a technical standpoint, it will be interesting to see how far they go.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Seasonal Declines Per History

Weekly Continuous

Price action conformed to the historical norms (for the most part) though, last week, I Thought that a 14% decline would more than close the 06/27 gap and test well defined conventional support. The expectation was the decline to occur on either 07/07 or 08. Instead, August fell $.458 (12.2%) on 06/30 and 07/01…closing the gap and trading just through the low of the first targeted support band ($3.300 – $3.350).

It is not unprecedented for a low to trade before the holiday trading break. In ’19 a low was traded on 07/01 before a rally to a mid – July high. In ’13 before a similar rally but there was a minor decline from an 07/03 high to a 07/05 low ($3.700 to $3.577). Both of those pre – holiday lows were later substantially violated during the initial days of the tenure of prompt September.

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Everything on Historical Plan

Daily Continuous

Assuming that the trend from Sunday will continue through the open– expect additional weakness during the week as the Holiday pattern is likely to continue. May be a selling opportunity– but would not hold short positions for very long (or sell premium below). Buyers should be patient currently and let the flow develop.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Declines Challenge Initial Support

Daily Continuous

Declines took price to the high side of the support range ($3.25 topside), failed and then rallied slightly. Trade seems light going into the Holiday so look for anomalies that the thin trade may provide. Doubt the trade will provide any kind of major move but the slow declines may provide opportunities for selling some premium.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Strong Close May Suggest Early Strength

Daily Continuous

The strong close to last week may be suggesting early strength today but the Sunday night market is showing weakness. Discuss the seasonal patterns and historical averages (declines) around the Independence Day in the Weekly section — give it a read. Will be in and out of access this holiday week– but I should be scheduling the Daily tomorrow and Wednesday. Should the declines initiated on Sunday hold — the market will likely be establishing the initial low end of the range for August contract.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Expiration Very Soft

Daily Continuation

Weakness continued as those who had not covered were forced especially after the storage release. The prediction in the Weekly section this week was spot on regarding weak prices around the 4th of July holiday– the question now, which will keep me on the sidelines until next week, do the declines cease or extend.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Declines Continue to Key Option Zone

Daily Continuation

That is two months in a row that prices declined to the 200 day SMA and pierced through the options positions just above the SMA. You all know my trading opinions about expiration’s and the lack of enthusiasm for trading.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Declines Start to Challenge Support

Daily Continuation

Per the expectations outlined in the Week Section, prices continued to decline as we approach expiration of the July contract. Yesterday brought about limited support for the day would not consider that the low for the expiration process.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

As Expected – Seasonal Weakness Commences

Daily Continuous

Discussed in yesterday’s postings that this period of time of the year, is historically a weak time of the year and sure enough, prices softened yesterday. Declines went to the lows from a small daily gap at $3.62 — likely to be tested today. I don’t see prices breaking down below but my sight is often clouded.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Prices May Get Support

Daily Continuous

Discuss the historical aspects of the late June and early July price movements in the Natural Gas market in the Weekly Section– suffice to say — it is a weak period of time historically. Though last week provided a bullish break out — the coming two weeks may challenge that break out. The wild card in all of it, is the attack on Iran which is likely to bring a bid to crude oil and may spill over to the gas market –will have to wait and see.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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