Author: Willis Bennett

Declines continued and took a run at the lows from the post Labor Day lows. Breaking below, in the early morning trade, the low extension could not hold and prices gained strength during the trade day. The initial decline has now presented a new area of support for prices to test in the coming weeks. Would expect a rally to define the high end of the range this week and perhaps expiration as the trend has been for strength through the expiration process.

Major Support: $4.88-$4.825, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17,

That was easier than I had expected as prices declined through the intermediate support zones and close below $5.00 for the first time since late September. Will be interested to see how far the declines continue as nothing has changed regarding world wide supply and demand balance that I was told driving the gains. U. S. demand going into November looks mild but again that was not the catalyst (so I was told). How much with the fundamental kids take prices lower before they get interested in supporting price again. I care not as my trades have always been based upon the technical side of price action– funny how all that fundamental crap means little to levels and trends.

Major Support: $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.17, $5.34, $5.63- $5.68

Prices weakened on Friday (per expectations) and now look to test the support zone at $5.17 and then stay above the critical $5.00 level which has not been broken for a month. Not sure the bears have the power or commitment to break that level as the general supply and demand imbalance situation has not modified in the last week. Hence, continue the range market that will control prices near term.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.63- $5.68

Prices ran up to the high side of the new range and promptly failed. This is now trading like a “normal” commodity behavior instead of the rocket ship we enjoyed last month and early in October. Would expect prices now to test support area established earlier this week before next week’s storage report. On the other hand, the market seems to be correlated to other gas futures in Europe, Great Britain and Asia– so not having a license for those contracts, leaves me cautious at best.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.63- $5.68, $5.876, $6.24-$6.49

Guess a day or two of declines, mitigating the extreme over bought indicators, met the market expectations for higher prices in the longer term. Nothing has change from the fundamental side (except for comments from Russia) from the highs traded last week. Now back in the extreme zones on the Weekly charts but still reasonable from the Daily chart. I would expect further gains and I need to adjust my high side of the range trade (discussed yesterday) to $6.00 as the market has shown discomfort in closing above that level.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.63- $5.68, $5.876, $6.24-$6.49

The consolidation pattern continued yesterday to a point of support, though not quite hitting it then rebounding back up to a higher daily close. The rebound put prices back in the extreme momentum levels on the Weekly charts, but the week is not over– so trade with caution. This looks to be a potential struggle as the market was running on expectations (Europe, Great Briton and the US) of limited supplies to replenish storage by the end of the month and going into winter short. Nothing on that side of the ledger has changed to my knowledge (fundamental information limited at best) so I am going to guess that volatility will be gaining and the market will be a series of gains and losses until some additional fundamental data comes to fruition. From the technical standpoint this is set up as a range trade between $5.63 and $5.15.

Discussed last week about the recent trend of rallies at the first of the week (4 of the last 6) but now we have an opening coming off a lower weekly close which is a first in the last six weeks. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts, especially coming of the declines late last week. Those declines would suggest a weak opening but the early trade Sunday night, have some slight strength. Still waiting for some consolidation or declines to soften the extremely over bought condition.

Major Support:$5.416, $5.341, $5.17, $4.88, $4.61, $4.537,$4.375, $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821,
Minor Support: $5.62-$5.633, $4.728-$4.70, $4.66
Major Resistance: $5.876, $6.24-$6.493