Author: Willis Bennett

Brief Consolidation of Recent Gains

Daily Consolidation

After extending gains to test the 100 day SMA, traders backed off the positive momentum of price action to consolidate at the days low. While not breaking out above– it will be today’s trade to see if prices are just going to decline and retest the recent support zones a dime around $2.00. The historical tendency for September has been to trade the high of its tenure during the first two weeks of the calendar month but there have been a few strong Augusts in recent years. A year ago, September conformed to the historical tendency. After falling to forfeit about a dime premium that had been awarded over expired August September ‘23 rallied from an 08/02 low ($2.457) to an 08/09 high ($3.018). In ’20, ’21 and ’22 September remained well – bid into expiration. This action was set up only to give back a chunk of those gains during calendar September (the Labor Day seasonal largely responsible).

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Running Into Support

Daily Continuous

Several attempts over the last ten days have attacked the support provided by the earlier lows of calendar 2024. None of which have proven successful. There will come a time (not sure when) that the market chooses a different direction bias– seasonal pressures may delay such a flip but it will occur.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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First Technical Indication Of a Slight Bias Change

Weekly Continuation

After trading through a previous week’s low in each of the last seven weeks followed by settling lower in seven of the last eight, prompt gas held above the expiration lows of August and then reversed to close higher, which was the first higher weekly close since the Friday before the June high.

While September traded a new contract low (trading through its previous week’s low for the eighth straight week while falling from $3.193 to $1.882, trading as contract prompt it held above the 07/29 low. A reversal higher followed that extended through last week’s high (both on a continuation and contract basis) and did so with a significant increase in volume. September traded an “outside” week reversal. While it did not close above $2.149 (last week’s high) it was close at $2.143.

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Solid Move Up to Initial Resistance

Daily Continuous

Finally got a little move up to initial resistance — it will be interesting to watch. Still bearish technical input and now all this should be characterized as a counter trend rally to test resistance.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:$2.18, $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Weakness Prevails

Weekly Continuous

August gas fell into expiration as was expected. This makes it the seventh straight month (all of the expiration’s in calendar ’24) the prompt was amply offered into expiration and the fourth of those seven to trade the low of its tenure as prompt coincident with expiration.

New prompt September closed higher for two days after August was off the board, managing to close above some declining trend line resistance, but without volume confirming the recovery with a reversal following with increased volume (and a significant increase in open interest strongly suggesting heightened interest in shorting the new prompt). September traded new contract lows on Thursday and Friday, trading as low as low as $1.920 before ending the week $.084 lower (on a continuation basis prompt gas was .0$39 lower). August’s closing range before recovering raises the technical odds that September will get a shot to finish closing the gap. If September closes below $1.848 then the daily gap comes into focus ($1.628 – $1.85).

On May 1st total open interest was 1,587,270. By June 12th the total had fallen to 1,443,769 allowing for that nearly 150,000 contracts of short covering had been a significant contributor to the June 100%+ rally. Since 06/12 open interest has returned to and this week surpassed the early May high (currently 1,592,601). That total is less than 25,000 contracts below the twin peaks that preceded the February and March lows.

Give the downside momentum created by the multiple weeks decline from the June high, the expected weak expiration of August gas and September trading a new contract low, expect the prompt to be offered lower to close the late April gap. On a weekly continuation basis, the fraction of that gap remaining is between $1.848 and $1.856.

Longer term, these declines and the constant attack at rallies by the bears will lead to a short covering rally similar to what was experienced in early June. Perhaps, that will be the driver for the annual upcoming Q4 run.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Selling Begets Selling

Daily Continuous

The market is poised to test the lows from earlier in the spring (discussed in the Weekly) and is starting to add to the declines in the Sunday night trade. Not sure if the storm will impact prices as the potential for demand destruction was well known on Friday afternoon. Continue to expect the Q3 low to be established between now and Labor Day weekend.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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This Defines Consolidation

Daily Continuation

Up eight down five welcome to the consolidation world. This is the perfect environment for selling premium which I will continue to do.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Slight But Solid Gains

Daily Continuation

The first day of the September contract as prompt showed some slight strength but time will tell for the contract. Still expecting the lows later in the month so perhaps this is just some consolidation until the next decline occurs.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

Expiration Trend Continues

Daily Continuous

The trend of expiration’s continue as the August contract was well offered just as it’s predecessors. With the light volume associated for the last week would not expect any great volatility in the next week. Perhaps the demand will bring some support – but it should be short lived.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Is It the Q3 Low

Weekly Continuation

Failure at the conventional and trend line resistance on Monday and again early Tuesday (20 Week SMA) put August on the same track as its predecessor contract months which (as discussed in the Daily) a low volume decline into expiration. With one day left for prompt August before it goes to settlement, technically it does not matter what happens tomorrow unless there is some kind of high volume price surge (regardless of early Sunday night trade). Given that Friday’s close was the lowest daily close since May 1st and the lowest weekly close since prompt May settled at $1.619 on Friday April 26th, the chances of another “amply offered” expiration seem greater.

The bottom line is that prompt gas held a zone of support defined by the March high ($2.009), the mid – April high ($1.943, the high of week ending 04/12) and $1.913, the low of calendar May, as trading for the last week of August’s tenure ended, tenuously. For the first time since just after the “expiration” gap following May going off the board, prompt gas traded sub – $2…to $1.994, and September ain’t far behind ($.045 premium to August).

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