Expiration Provides Little Bias Guidance

Weekly Continuous

April gas tested support again, but did not make it to the second targeted zone, before rallying to go off the board at $3.095. Maybe an expiring contract has settled unchanged from the closing price of the previous week sometime in the past, but I don’t remember it. Considering the volatility of the recent past, perhaps that’s a hint about equalization of supply and demand. April settled .126 higher than March. The thirty six months average settlement price (skewed a little by that adventure in February) is $2.96.

With the exception of a war related one day spike to $3.494 April was confined within a range of a little less than $.50/dt; on a daily closing basis about $.40 for its entire tenure…and almost all of calendar February. Over that period two reversal days…the 03/09 spike to April’s March high and one on 02/06, both of which ended near the lows traded those days, effectively defined near term resistance that will likely carry over to May’s tenure.

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