The expiration process went off as expected staying with in the range that was developed during month. A week ago, the premium awarded to November increased from $.266 to $.302. This week that premium rose to $.371. Nov is always premium over Oct, but a year ago when October went to settlement November was awarded $.160, in ’23$ .135. In both ’23 and ’24 new prompt November rallied–in ’23 to a 10/09 high before returning from where it came from then trading back through the low of its first day as prompt on 10/23. The expiration gap left on 09/28/23 was narrowed but not closed and that would have to wait for calendar November.
There is no technical explanation for this year’s exceptional premium other than November’s continuing ability to hold/close above the lower boundary of a trading range that limited declines from around Memorial Day until then prompt August broke down before going off the board at $3.081…and then limited rallies including at the calendar August and to date September highs. Sometimes extraordinary premium for the prompt – in – waiting is delivering a message…sometimes it isn’t.
