August extended its decline, trading just through $3 before going off the board at $3.081, the lowest contract month settlement since November ’24 at $2.437. To close out calendar July, new prompt September undercut the pre-expiration low by a penny before reversing higher. On a continuation basis prompt gas closed lower for the fifth time over the six weeks. While the open and close numbers are not exact, prompt gas ended the week near where it began when trading resumed ($3.083 v $3.093). That’s close to but not a textbook doji, but it is close. This pattern can suggest some measure of exhaustion for the downtrend that has now extended $1.176 or 28.4% from the 06/20 failed test of the April high. While the downtrend may be temporarily exhausted seasonal pressure almost certainly isn’t.
An early August rally is typical of September’s tenure as prompt followed by a fade into expiration. In ’24 September peaked on 08/15 at $2.301 after rallying from a post – August expiration low of $1.882 then retreated to exactly test the July low of $1.856 (hard to believe that the July and August lows were identical) before recovering to go off the board at $1.930. That rare, perfect “double bottom” has never been retested. Do not expect history to repeat itself but a similar pattern with different levels may occur.
