The weight of the seasonal pressure that has been discussed and warned about since before the rally to the June Q2 high, fell on soon to expire August. A year ago, the seasonal descent was more orderly after the June Q2 ’24 high (week ending 06/14) prompt gas declined for six of seven weeks (falling from $3.159 to $1.856, or 41.2%). At the time the weekly ATR was .324. By the time a rally began to gain momentum, following an August test of the July low, the ATR had fallen to .268.
This is another example in natural gas that history does not repeat itself, but some times it rhymes. Since the June ’25 Q2 high (week ending 06/20, a few days after the anniversary of the high) the decline has been far more erratic. Just last week August closed at its highs gaining $.125(and was well – bid in the aftermarket. Volatility, still elevated by historic standards, is $.466/dt/week (+/- 40% higher).
