After holding support at the continuation 200 – day when trading resumed after Memorial Day, June tried to rally ($3.511), but could not duplicate the strength into settlement of its two immediate predecessors. June’s last trading day was the opposite of the close of trading for April and May. Expiring June was hammered as it went to settlement, falling from that $3.511 high to $3.152, before settling at $3.204 still $.034 higher than May (which rallied .311 on its last trading day to find that level). Consecutive settlements at +/- the same price level suggests pretty good demand between +/- $3.15 – $3.21…which technical types like myself will call support. Supply, which technical types like to call resistance, has been by the settlement values of March and April, $3.861 – $3.906, hence the range I have been discussing for the last three months.
A week ago, July was bid $.391 premium to soon to expire June, a historically high premium for the mid – summer month. At June settlement that premium was reduced to $.353 but was still the highest in recent years. The last couple of times that a significantly greater premium was awarded to the prompt – in – waiting, the new prompt took off to the upside, it was suggested here that this may not happen. Plus, considering that the low level of open interest, upside vulnerability was may remain a concern.
