After consecutive poor weekly closes following the price spike to $4.901, April nearly completed the thought of a regression to the continuation 20 – weeks SMA. The expiring prompt traded as low as $3.689 (the value of the 20 week avg was $3.655) before recovering enough to go off the board at $3.861, a little under March ($3.906) but higher than January ($3.644) and February ($3.535). Four calendar ’25 settlements in relatively close proximity suggests that he gas market is adjusting to a higher price level and is/has (or will) come to some kind of uneasy equilibrium. New prompt May followed the expiring prompt lower and tested support at its January high before reversing back through its 50 – day SMA. Well bid into the close May posted a gain for the week, its first since the high weekly close on 03/07 ($4.456).
Characteristically, in a healthy uptrend volume increases as prices push higher. When a correction occurs volume should diminish. As can best be seen, aside from the volume divergence that occurred during the week of the spike high (a higher high with lower volume) that is what has occurred since the January low and periodically before. Particularly the three higher weekly closes following that January low with increasing volume, the “inside” week with a lower close with diminished volume and more volume as prompt April traded to the early March high weekly close. Since then, with lower closes volume for each week has steadily diminished. This week’s lower volume reversal after April lost ground into expiration is an indication that the gas market is not ready to run back toward the highs, but suggests that the foundation is being laid.
