During the week ending 12/20 January broke out after a volatile consolidation period that followed the November high test of the upper boundary of a trading range that had confined successive prompts for nearly two years. The prompt closed at $3.748, the highest price since week ending 01/03/23. Price was higher but volume wasn’t (that sends a red flag to some technical analysts) to cast a skeptical eye. Over the entire 34 years history of natural gas trading there had never been an “inside” December (where for the entire month of December prompt gas remained between the price extremes traded during calendar November) and needless to say, there still has not been.
During week ending 12/27 January extended its price spike to $4.01 (the first trade to/through $4 since 01/09/23) before fading to go off the board at $3.644 (the highest monthly settlement since January ’23 at $4.709). February wasted little time before extending the rally to $4.201 with nearly a million shares changing hands on its first day as prompt but did not end the day (12/30) with a higher daily close than 12/24 another in a series of momentum divergences (a higher high (daily and weekly) without a higher close.
