Back from the Canadian fishing and am not shocked at all to see what I missed. September fulfilled the expectation of declining into expiration as the eighth straight month to do so, and the fifth of the eight months that have expired in 2024 to trade the lows of their tenure as prompt coincident with expiration. Expiring September traded to the exact same price as expiring August as it went off the board. Both the calendar July and August lows were $1.856…leaving the remaining sliver of the 04/29 expiration gap still open between $1.848 and $1.856. Four weeks ago, when August first left the gap unfilled it was commented that it was clear that some folks were defending that gap and they still are.
A year ago expiring September also traded the August low (anniversary events are always interesting) after trading $.032 through the July low. A reversal from that low produced a bullish momentum divergence. The August low was the Q3 ’23 low and was not violated until 12/11. New prompt October, which was awarded $.167 premium over expired September immediately built on that premium gaining as much as $ .074 before fading to end the week still $.053/dt lower.
