Failure at the conventional and trend line resistance on Monday and again early Tuesday (20 Week SMA) put August on the same track as its predecessor contract months which (as discussed in the Daily) a low volume decline into expiration. With one day left for prompt August before it goes to settlement, technically it does not matter what happens tomorrow unless there is some kind of high volume price surge (regardless of early Sunday night trade). Given that Friday’s close was the lowest daily close since May 1st and the lowest weekly close since prompt May settled at $1.619 on Friday April 26th, the chances of another “amply offered” expiration seem greater.
The bottom line is that prompt gas held a zone of support defined by the March high ($2.009), the mid – April high ($1.943, the high of week ending 04/12) and $1.913, the low of calendar May, as trading for the last week of August’s tenure ended, tenuously. For the first time since just after the “expiration” gap following May going off the board, prompt gas traded sub – $2…to $1.994, and September ain’t far behind ($.045 premium to August).
