There are four trading days left in calendar November and the prompt has lost $.753/dt ( 21% from the 11/01 high to Friday’s close), while prompt – in – waiting January has lost $.842 as the premiums awarded deferred months continue to be compressed. This week’s low for January gas, $2.933 also happened to be the same as the contract’s low for the first week of June 2021.
With the weekly close only $.115 higher than the low close of 2023 and $.259 higher than the low close of 2021 (all weekly closes of ’22 were higher), the market may be providing opportunity to add to length. Note that December ’24 is currently priced at $4.039 making the “new” continuation strip certainly higher when December goes to settlement and is replaced. My thoughts are not to pay the premium that results from that replacement but rather to bide your time and wait for the premium in the differed contracts to dissipate while keeping a close eye on the support between those old continuation lows and the average settlement value of the last twelve months or so.
