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Wow -- That's Defines Holiday Weakness

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Major Support: $2.852-$2.847, $2.797, $2.773, $2.723

Major Resistance: $2.891, $2.934, $2.982-$2.986, $2.998, $2.998-$3.029, $3.064

Did not see that amount of weakness going into the Holiday— perhaps it was wise that I not write on Wed or during the Holiday.  Prices plummeted, starting on Thursday in very light trade and then capitulated on Friday in another limited trade day.  It all left prices at the lowest weekly close this year and the lowest 12 month strip this year.  Guess the winter is over?  Whups— not so fast as some of the models have colder temperatures arriving around Dec 8th and prices are back up a dime tonight. Not sure if the gains will maintain today but I would expect the expiration of the Dec contract to stay higher than the expiration range of the Nov—I can’t believe there is a lot of liquidation length that has to come out after Friday.  Last week’s declines also occurred on substantial gains in open interest, which could be construed as additional shorts entering the market and we know what happened to the late coming shorts in early Nov. Have no ideas on the Dec contract but with the changes in the forecasts (which have been driving price action for two months) would be accumulating Jan on dips.  Don’t let your subscription to weather forecasters expire — they seem to come in handy these days— perhaps more than technical analysts but you didn’t see me write that. 

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