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Prices Never Test Friday Low

Daily Continuous

Daily Continuous

Major Support: $2.852-$2.847, $2.797, $2.773, $2.723

Major Resistance: $2.891, $2.934, $2.982-$2.986, $2.998, $2.998-$3.029, $3.064

Price action did not test the lows established on Friday and firmed after the early morning low at $2.88.  As of last Tuesday (according to the latest CFTC report yesterday) both the speculative shorts and the speculative longs added to positions while prices traded between $3.01 and $3.14.  That said, with the brutal declines on Thur and Friday and open interest adding 33,000 contracts, I would suspect that was a lot more speculative shorts than speculative length.  So here we sit with a whole bunch of late coming shorts (likely in the Jan contract) and forecasts that are much more supportive than last week.  Hold on, if the forecasts stay supportive for higher demand, we might be in for a volatile week. Dec goes off the board today and I would think the range should stay in the $2.90’s— the trend of rallies into expiration disappeared last month with the collapse on expiration.

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