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Consolidation Continues

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Major Support: $3.114, $3.045, $2.956, $2.874, $2.836, $2.762, $2.711, $2.704

Minor Support: $3.13, $3.16, $2.938, $2.783, $2.704, $2.695, $2.61

Major Resistance: $3.257-$3.297,$3.341, $3.431

Minor Resistance: $3.368

Discussed last week that the market would need to consolidate the gain from early in the month and range trade for a while, as the gains had extended a little too far too fast. That is what the market seems to be doing as it seems to developing a base (or the top) of this run.  I believe it is the former. Look for the consolidation to continue before the storage report on Thursday. 

Consolidation Continues

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Major Support: $3.114, $3.045, $2.956, $2.874, $2.836, $2.762, $2.711, $2.704

Minor Support: $3.13, $3.16, $2.938, $2.783, $2.704, $2.695, $2.61

Major Resistance: $3.257-$3.297,$3.341, $3.431

Minor Resistance: $3.368

The run tried for the second time to break out above near term resistance around $3.36 and failed only to retrace before the storage report.  Some analysts have the report in the high 80’s but the trade on the market was 90-94 when I check yesterday.  Regardless of the report the market is still consolidating the recent gains which should be occurring for any future gains or a reversal downward.  Seems like the new range is from $3.13 (down to $3.11) to $3.35.  Will be interesting to watch how prices respond on any test of support. I am still concerned about the market being so over bought based on the trade challenging the 3 standard deviations over the 20 week SMA which has not proven successful as an area to add to length.

Consolidation Continues

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Major Support: $2.575, $2.568-$2.522

Major Resistance: $2.88-$2.891, $3.005-$3.039, $3.081, $3.131, $3.183

Minor Resistance: $2.68, $2.75, $2.83, $2.973

It is not that I am being lazy but the analysis was so accurate on Monday that I have repeated each day this week and will again today as we hit the storage report. The press says the analysts look for 187 which will likely be the last 150+ withdrawal of the season. Prices action will now reflect coming out of the winter season and the fundamental data not supporting any positive bias.  It is a matter of when now as discussed this week……

The lows of late 2016 and all of 2017 are in the target zone and and expect them tested this week.  When this level breaks, its going to lead to additional declines, likely into the $2.20 area.  Not sure if they will garner the momentum to break below this week but the weather forecasts are rather bearish longer term after some near time chill. This week’s storage will not promote major declines as it looks to be above the 5 year and last year. With the fundamentals going into summer this long on supply and the technical set up around the Q1 seasonal low firmly in front of the market — this major support level should break down eventually.

Notice I did not minimize by writing “if” but rather “when” level breaks…………….

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