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Confusion is Prevelant

Daily Continuous

Daily Continuous

Major Support: $3.205, $3.199, $3.170, $3.159, $3.14, $3.105

Major Resistance: $$3.27- $3.313, $3.432, $3.494, $3.513, $3.541, $3.568, $3.617

I am clearly headed to the forest, confused and dazed.  The market is trading on fundamental data inputs — namely weather forecasts that have below average temps for the coming 3 weeks— so prices decline.  The market receives additional bearish data from the EIA release, to which only one respected private group had an injection that high (friends at Bentek / SP Global hit the number exactly) and prices declined, for about two minutes, to set the low for the day. Then in the next 12 minutes reversed and traded up.  Granted selling returned but with out the velocity or volume.  If the market chooses to continue to focus on demand issues — then we should be attacking major support at $3.10 — perhaps we will.  If the market ever looks beyond the nose in front of the face — the last few injections have been below the injections of last year as well as the five year.  Even with the bearish forecasts the next two injections continue that trend of injections below 2016 and the 5 year.  My confusion centers on the fundamental concept of LOOKING AT SUPPLY RATHER THAN DEMAND. I digress because these types of contradictions is why I rarely trade around fundamental data inputs. Technical data inputs continue to show a market testing support at different levels and failing to break below. Perhaps it will make its mind up today, wouldn’t count on it with the latest forecasts.  Sounds like an old record, buy support and keep a tight stop until this market figures out whether it is looking 15 days or 15 weeks.

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